By any ordinary standards, Silvio Berlusconi should have resigned as Prime Minister of Italy. In October, Italy's Constitutional Court overturned the law granting him immunity from prosecution. Without this immunity, Berlusconi is likely to be brought to trial for corruption, embezzlement and fraud. If he is brought to trial, there is a strong chance that he will be found guilty. After months of scandals - the most lurid of which has involved a number of high-class prostitutes - it looked like the writing was finally on the wall. But with his trademark bullishness, il Cavaliere has managed to cling on to power.

His opponents are furious. While Berlusconi has long been haunted by allegations of mafia connections, sexual impropriety, and nefarious business practices, his strangle-hold on the Italian media has proved too much for many Italians to bear. In addition to owning an array of newspapers, publishing houses and TV channels, Berlusconi also controls Italy's state-owned media outlets in his capacity as Prime Minister, and has attempted to restrict the freedom of the press with draconian libel laws. The possibility that he might resign after losing his immunity seemed to offer new hope and it is no surprise that Berlusconi's critics are outraged by his determination to hold on to power.

In most people's books, Berlusconi is a crook, and a dangerous crook at that. But hard though it might be for his opponents to believe, he might just be the best option for Italy at the moment. In a strange way, Italy actually needs the crook right now.

As voters in Louisiana understand only too well, it's a matter of alternatives. In 1991, Edwin Edwards stood as the Democratic candidate for governor there. Dogged by allegations of corruption, Edwards was not an ideal candidate. He was a crook and is currently serving a 10-year sentence for racketeering. But even though he was not the sort of person you'd be overjoyed to have running your state, he was still infinitely better than the other guy.

Edwards' opponent was no ordinary political adversary. He was up against David Duke. A former Grand Wizard of the Klu Klux Klan, Duke was - and is - one of the most vocal white supremacists in America. Having beaten the incumbent governor for the Republican nomination, Duke was running on an openly racist platform. Faced with an unenviable choice, voters had only one option: as Edwards' campaign stickers put it: "Vote for the crook. It's important."

Although it has been overlooked in the furore surrounding the Constitutional Court's decision, Italy is in a comparable situation. While Berlusconi may be a crook, he might still be better than the alternatives.

If Berlusconi were to resign, Italy would have two options. On the one hand, it could opt for continuity. The centre-right coalition - comprising Berlusconi's Partito della Liberta (PdL), the anti-immigration Lega Nord, and the Movimento per le Autonomie - has a robust majority in parliament and could continue to function under a new leader. But the identity of that leader is the real problem.

Gianfranco Fini - currently the President of the Chamber of Deputies - is the most likely to succeed Berlusconi as Prime Minister, and has already staked his claim with what amounts to a manifesto for government and a series of open criticisms of Berlusconi himself. Despite the remarkable effort he has made to project an image of sober respectability, however, Fini's views would shock even the most entrenched of Berlusconi's opponents. Although it is now formally a part of Berlusconi's PdL, Fini was the leader of the neo-fascist Alleanza Nazionale. For years, Fini courted controversy by publicly heaping praise on Mussolini. He openly branded his party as a Fascist trailblazer, while introducing harsh new immigration laws and moving for the compulsory hospitalisation of all drug addicts. With Fini at the helm, Italy would be jerked back towards it Fascist past.

On the other hand, however, Berlusconi's coalition could collapse, forcing a premature election. In the confused and often Machiavellian world of Italian politics, it is not unthinkable that a key member of the coalition could withdraw its support in the hope of gaining a better deal. The Lega Nord has, indeed, done this before, and brought down Berlusconi's first government without hesitation in late 1994.

While it might be reasonable to expect Italy's largest opposition party - the left-wing Partito Democratico (PD) - to benefit from an early election, however, any hope that the PdL and its political allies would be swept from power is misplaced. The PD is in turmoil. It has lost two leaders in under a year, and has consistently struggled to define a clear line on policy. Hampered by factionalism and unable to give itself a sense of political direction, the PD made dramatic losses in the crucial European and administrative elections in June, despite the fact that Berlusconi was already becoming mired in scandal. Even with a new leader, Pier Luigi Bersani, there is little indication that the PD will be in any position to improve on its disastrous track record any time soon. On the basis of the most recent polls, the governing coalition - under Fini - would win a future election.

The only party which is likely to benefit from an election is the Lega Nord. While it might seem strange for a member of Berlusconi's government to profit from the collapse of the coalition and the atmosphere of scandal-mongering, the Lega is actually in the perfect position to make considerable political capital out of an early election. For years, a significant part of the Lega's identity has been based on opposition to 'Roma ladrona' ('thieving Rome'), and the party has made a point of criticising the corruption and wastefulness of 'establishment' politicians. The idea of 'Roma ladrona' has worked well for the Lega in the past. In the recent European and administrative elections, the Lega recorded its highest ever share of the vote in a national election and consolidated its hold on local government in northern regions. Should an election be called any time soon, it's more than likely that the Lega's trenchant opposition to corruption would strike a chord with voters disaffected with the PdL, yet unwilling to embrace the PD.

With a stronger presence in the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies, the Lega would be well-placed to demand not only a more prominent role in a future coalition, but also significant policy concessions. And this is where the problem lies. Notwithstanding the immediate relevance of its opposition to corruption, the Lega's political platform is defined by xenophobia and an unabashed racism. It has led the charge calling for a violent crackdown on immigration and is responsible for establishing dubious vigilante groups in cities across the north. One of its councillors in Padua controversially used a pig to desecrate the site of a proposed mosque for the benefit of the local media, and this is not untypical of the party's approach to politics. Following an election in which it is likely to make substantial gains, the Lega would be in a position to bring these attitudes to the forefront of a coalition's legislative agenda.

Without Berlusconi, Italy would plunge towards the right. With Fini in the driving seat, and with the Lega Nord at his side, the country would face a future of right-wing racism and xenophobia reminiscent of the Fascist past. Given the alternatives, Berlusconi is certainly the lesser evil. In the end, it's a case of "Back the crook. It's important."